New condo sales in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area hit their lowest level since 1991. Pre-construction condo investors are underwater. Resale condo prices are down 8–12% from their 2022 peak. If you're wondering whether to buy, sell, or wait — this is the straight answer you need.
According to industry data through Q1 2026, new condo pre-sales in the GTHA plunged to levels not seen in over three decades. Year-to-date new condo sales were running roughly 60% below the already-weak 2024 pace in some submarkets. Developers have shelved or redesigned projects that would have launched in a stronger market, grappling with high construction costs and wary investors.
On the resale side, the average condo apartment price in Toronto sits approximately 8–12% below the March 2022 peak. A condo that sold for $750,000 in early 2022 is worth roughly $660,000–$690,000 today. Larger floor plans and luxury condos are sitting the longest — often 60–90+ days on market.
Three things hit condos harder than any other property type. First, investor-heavy ownership — a large share of Toronto condos were purchased by investors relying on rental income to cover carrying costs. As rents softened and mortgage costs stayed elevated, negative cash flow forced some investors to sell simultaneously, flooding supply.
Second, the pre-construction pipeline. Thousands of units sold in 2021–2022 at peak prices are now closing at values lower than the purchase price — leaving some buyers unable to close or choosing to assign at a loss. This has created a wave of distressed pre-construction closings.
Third, return-to-office. The pandemic fuelled condo demand from remote workers and urban professionals who later moved to suburban detached homes. That demand wave has partially reversed.
For end-users — people who plan to live in the unit for 5+ years — yes, 2026 presents one of the better entry points in several years. You have real negotiating power, conditions are accepted, and prices are meaningfully below peak. The investors who bought at $750K and need to sell are your opportunity.
For investors — the calculus is harder. With average Ontario rents at $2,238/month for a one-bedroom and condo mortgage payments significantly above that on most recent purchases, cash flow is negative in most scenarios. The investment case in 2026 rests almost entirely on long-term appreciation — which is a reasonable bet for a 7–10 year horizon but a painful short-term position.
If you need to sell, price it for today's market — not 2022. Condos that are priced correctly are still selling in 30–45 days. Condos that start high and chase the market down are accumulating 90, 120, 150+ days on market and selling for less than they would have at a correct launch price.
If you can afford to hold for 2–3 years, the case for waiting is reasonable. Housing starts in Ontario are projected to hit a 20-year low in 2026 — meaning the supply pipeline is thinning. When demand eventually recovers (and it will), that supply shortage will push prices up. The question is your financial position and timeline.
In a market where condo values have already corrected 8–12%, every dollar of commission matters more than ever. On a $650,000 condo, the difference between a 2.5% listing commission ($16,250) and our 1% listing ($6,500) is $9,750. That's money that stays with you at closing regardless of market conditions. If you're a condo owner considering selling, talk to us before committing to a traditional commission structure.
Get a free, no-obligation evaluation of your condo or consultation on buying in today's market. We'll give you straight numbers — no pressure.
